Center for All-Clear SEP Forecast (CLEAR)

Background

Space weather predictions vary in accuracy and timeliness, which leaves astronauts, space mission leaders, and satellite operators without enough time to react to dangerous particles flung out by the sun. The sun constantly sends a stream of charged particles toward the Earth. When the sun produces a major eruption, those particles become more numerous and higher in energy—and more dangerous.

Solar energetic particles (SEPs) may have severe radiation effects on both astronauts and instruments. While the magnetic field deflects most of those particles on Earth, many space instruments and astronauts don’t have that protection.

The most dangerous torrents of particles could kill astronauts exposed during a spacewalk and damage the electronics on space instruments. This harm can be prevented if astronauts stay inside and instruments are switched off while the particles pass by.

When the stakes are that high, getting advanced notice of dangerous solar activity is mission critical. Now, researchers will work to provide that notice from the Center for All-Clear Solar Energetic Particle Forecast (CLEAR Center). The CLEAR Center will build tools that give space instrument operators and astronauts more advanced notice of harmful space weather in any region of the solar system.

About the Center

The CLEAR Space Weather Center of Excellence (CLEAR), led by principal investigator Dr. Lulu Zhao at the University of Michigan, aims to build a comprehensive prediction framework for solar energetic particles in order to find low radiation periods, or an “all clear forecast”, as well as the occurrence and characteristics of elevated periods.

This center’s research is pivotal in better protecting our astronauts and instrumentation from harmful solar radiation. The CLEAR Center’s research goals will be accomplished by integrating various prediction models using physics-based, machine learning and empirical techniques.

By providing better forecasting of these events, CLEAR aids NASA in protecting astronauts and instruments in space from solar eruptions that release damaging, high-energy particles.