NASA Space Weather Center of Excellence
CLEAR
Center for All-Clear SEP Forecast
Operational forecasting of solar energetic particles for human space explorations — with up to 24-hour lead time.
Prototype capabilities have been exercised in NOAA SWPC testbeds and support NASA situational awareness during Artemis II.
Learn more on the NASA space weather program website: science.nasa.gov/clear
Physics-Based Models
Global MHD solar-wind and particle-transport simulations from the corona through the heliosphere.
Machine Learning
Pre-eruption probabilistic forecasts trained on decades of flare, CME, and SEP observations.
Real-Time Observations
Near-real-time magnetograms, coronagraphs, and in-situ particle measurements.
Vision
Quantifiable SEP forecasts with up to 24-hour lead time
CLEAR delivers quantifiable SEP nowcasts and forecasts of space radiation intensities up to 24 hours in advance. The system provides:
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Probabilistic forecasts of solar eruptive events before they occur.
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Nowcasts and forecasts of SEP event properties — onset, intensity, spectra, and timing.
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All-clear forecasts identifying periods with SEP intensities below critical thresholds.
Motivation
SEPs are the primary radiation hazard for human spaceflight beyond low Earth orbit.
Solar energetic particles accelerated in solar eruptions arrive at Earth within minutes — at energies that matter most for crew safety. Protons above 100 MeV penetrate spacecraft shielding and drive astronaut dose; protons above 500 MeV penetrate Earth's atmosphere and threaten aviation.
For Artemis and future deep-space missions, timely, quantifiable SEP forecasts are a prerequisite for safe operations — not an enhancement.
Objectives
What CLEAR delivers
A modular SEP forecast framework integrating observational data, physics-based models, empirical methods, and machine learning.
A benchmark SEP dataset with standard evaluation metrics for community validation and reuse.
Prediction capabilities addressing all five SEP forecasting gap areas identified in NASA's Space Weather Gap Analysis — pre-eruption probabilities, onset/peak timing, intensity profiles, spectra, and all-clear periods.
Integrated Multi-Model Framework
A modular, plug-and-play SEP forecast system.
CLEAR unites three modeling paradigms so their strengths compensate for one another's limitations — delivering forecasts with quantifiable uncertainty and up to 24-hour lead time, far exceeding current capabilities.
Physics-based models
AWSoM-R for solar wind, EEGGL for CME initiation, and M-FLAMPA / MITTENS for particle acceleration and transport.
Machine learning
Trained on decades of SEP, CME, and flare observations to extend forecasts into the pre-eruption phase.
Empirical models
SEPSTER and RELeASE, calibrated and enhanced with real-time solar data.
Impact of CLEAR on Space Exploration
Supporting crewed missions and critical infrastructure.
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Supports situational awareness for NASA's Artemis missions and future deep-space exploration.
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Extends to human exploration of Mars, where long mission durations and limited shielding increase radiation risk.
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Informs operational readiness for aviation and satellite operators facing solar radiation hazards.
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Enables probabilistic all-clear forecasts to support planning for astronaut EVAs and launch windows.
In the Media
Featured on AGU TV
The CLEAR Center's mission to forecast solar energetic particle events, in conversation with the American Geophysical Union.
Relevance and Impacts
Training the next generation of space-weather scientists
CLEAR fosters a multi-, inter- and trans-disciplinary environment, supporting students, postdocs, and early-career scientists. Outreach includes workshops, seminars, and public communication.
Partner Institutions
